羅賓斯管理學(xué) 決策PPT課件

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1、61Definition-決策決策 Decision -Making a choice from two or more alternatives. 在兩個或多個選項中作出選擇 Low level to high level managers make decisions. All organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and organization they work for.第1頁/共48頁62Universality of decision making Managers at all levels m

2、ake decisions，but particularly important to managers Decision making is part of all four managerial functions-Planning, Organizing, Leading, and Controlling Making decisions is the essence of the management. Managers are called decision makers第2頁/共48頁How do you make decisions? 入學(xué)考試面試題： 為何考上海大學(xué)？ 考進(jìn)了大

3、學(xué)你準(zhǔn)備做什么？ 未來的職業(yè)設(shè)想是什么？ 你們的回答： 上海大學(xué)很美麗、很有名 我要認(rèn)真學(xué)習(xí)，考證書 ？73第3頁/共48頁決策常見的問題決策常見的問題 片面 短見 感性 即刻滿足 前后矛盾短期決策與長期目標(biāo)不一致等等74第4頁/共48頁How do managers make decisions? 管理者如何作出賢明的決定？75第5頁/共48頁66Contents 1. Eight Steps in the Decision-Making Process2. Three Ways Managers Make Decisions3. Decisions and Decision-Making

4、Conditions4. Decision-Making Styles and how biases affect decision making 5. Challenges for decision makers (add.) Effective Decision Making Techniques6. Situations of decision making第6頁/共48頁What are the general factors affecting managers decision making?影響決策的因素影響決策的因素1.Process2.Approaches3.Types of

5、 decisions4.Conditions5.Managers6.Objectives7.Errors and Biases77第7頁/共48頁781. The Decision-Making Process 決策過程決策過程第8頁/共48頁79Exhibit 71The Decision-Making ProcessP179Eight 出處：羅賓斯 管理學(xué)13e第9頁/共48頁決策過程決策過程 Source: RobertN.Lussier Concepts, Applications, Skill Development 4e710第10頁/共48頁6112. The Ways Mana

6、gers Making Decisions 管理者的決策方法管理者的決策方法第11頁/共48頁6122.1 Rational Decision Making approach 理性決策理性決策D Assumptions of RationalityManagers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions to decision makers: TheyAre perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.明確目標(biāo)，徹底邏輯

7、，完全理性Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives. 清晰界定問題和全部選項Have a clear and specific goal 明確具體目標(biāo)Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests. 滿足組織最大利益第12頁/共48頁6132.2 Bounded Rationality DM A

8、pproach 有限理性決策有限理性決策 D Bounded Rationality（有限理性）（有限理性）Decision making thats rational, but are limited (bounded) by an individuals ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisfiedchoose the first alternative enco

9、untered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Ex: To find a job第13頁/共48頁 Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality, so they satisfice714第14頁/共48頁615后期決策受前期

10、決策影響后期決策受前期決策影響B(tài)ounded Rationality（有限理性） Bounded rational decision making influenced byOrganizations culture, internal politics, power considerations, and Escalation of commitment（承諾升級）（承諾升級）: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. Ex: Challenger

11、 space shuttle disaster第15頁/共48頁6162.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach 直覺決策直覺決策The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decision making （直覺決策）Is making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. 第16頁/共48頁617Exhibit 76What is Intuition? Five Different Aspects of IntuitionSourc

12、e: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.P184潛意識決策情感決策認(rèn)知決策經(jīng)驗決策價值道德決策直覺第17頁/共48頁7183 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions 決策類型與決策條件第18頁/共48頁7193.1 Types of Problems & Decisions

13、問題類型與決策類型問題類型與決策類型Structured ProblemsProgrammed DecisionUnstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Decision第19頁/共48頁6203.1 Types of DecisionsStructured Problems and Programmed DecisionsStructured Problems 結(jié)構(gòu)性問題Definition: Straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems 直接、熟悉并容易界定的問題Involve goals tha

14、t clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Example: a server in a restaurant spills a drink on a customers coatProgrammed Decisions 程序化決策Definition: A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approa

15、ch.Example: The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants expense第20頁/共48頁621(1) Programmed decision 程序化決策程序化決策 Policy（政策） A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem. Procedure （程序） A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a po

16、licy) to a structured problem. Rule （規(guī)則） An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.第21頁/共48頁622Example- Policy, Procedure, and Rule Policy（政策） Accept all customer-returned merchandise. Procedure（程序） Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.

17、 Rules （規(guī)則） Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00. No credit purchases are refunded for cash.第22頁/共48頁623Problems and Decisions (contd)Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decisions Unstructured Problems 結(jié)構(gòu)不良問題Definition: Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambig

18、uous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions 非程序化決策Definition: A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made solution 唯一的和不可重復(fù)的決策。Decisions that generate unique responses.第23頁/共48頁724Exhibit 77Programmed versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsP1

19、87第24頁/共48頁7253.2 Decision-Making Conditions 決策制定條件決策制定條件 Certainty （確定性）（確定性）Definition: A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Example: where to deposit money Risk （風(fēng)險性）（風(fēng)險性）Definition:A situation in which the manager

20、is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Example: next pageP187第25頁/共48頁626Decision-Making Conditions Uncertainty （不確定性）（不確定性）Definition: A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability

21、 estimates available Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.第26頁/共48頁627Decision-Making Conditions An Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition Maximax: the optimistic mana

22、gers choice to maximize the maximum payoff Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.第27頁/共48頁628Exhibit 79Payoff MatrixExample: Which Strategy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISAP189羅賓斯 管理學(xué)第28頁/共

23、48頁629Exhibit 79Payoff MatrixMaxmax choiceMaxmin choiceP189第29頁/共48頁630Exhibit 710 Regret MatrixMinimax choiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=第30頁/共48頁631Review Decision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition 利益可能性的最大化抉擇利益可能性的最大化抉擇 Maximax: the optimistic manag

24、ers choice to maximize the maximum payoff (Think about the largest Possible gain) 利益最低可能性的最大化決策利益最低可能性的最大化決策 Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff (Think about the lowest Possible gain) 后悔程度最小化決策后悔程度最小化決策 Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret. (Thi

25、nk about minimizing the Possible regret)第31頁/共48頁6324. Decision-Making Styles 決策者的風(fēng)格決策者的風(fēng)格 線性有邏輯的 非線性直覺的 集體參與的決策 個人獨(dú)斷的決策 當(dāng)機(jī)立斷式 深思熟慮式 恰到好處式第32頁/共48頁6334.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profile Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking styleA decision style characterized by a persons preference for u

26、sing external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinkingA decision style characterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches直覺.第33頁/共48頁634Exhibit 711 Common Dec

27、ision-Making Errors and BiasesP191第34頁/共48頁6354.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristics 啟示法 Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.1）Overconfidence Bias 自負(fù)偏見 Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.2）Immediate Gratification Bias 即時滿足偏見 Choosing a

28、lternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.第35頁/共48頁636Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)3）Anchoring Effect 錨定效應(yīng) Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.4）Selective Perception Bias 選擇認(rèn)識偏見 Selecting organizing and interpreting events

29、based on the decision makers biased perceptions.5）Confirmation Bias 證實偏見 Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.第36頁/共48頁637Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)6）Framing Bias 框架效應(yīng)偏見 Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation

30、while ignoring other aspects.7）Availability Bias 有效性（眼前）偏向 Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.8）Representation Bias 典型性偏見 Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.9）Randomness Bias 隨機(jī)性偏見 Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.第3

31、7頁/共48頁638Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)10）Sunk Costs Errors 沉沒成本錯誤 Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.11）Self-Serving Bias 自利性偏向 Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.12）Hindsight Bias 后

32、見偏向 Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).第38頁/共48頁How to avoid decision making bias and errors 1. Being aware of them and then not using them 2. Managers also should pay attention to “how” they make decisions and try to identi

33、fy the heuristics they typically use and critically evaluate how appropriate those are. 3. Helps from people around to identify weaknesses in their decision-making style, and try to improve them第39頁/共48頁4.3 Overview of Managerial Decision MakingP192Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking style Immed

34、iate time taken decision making styleAutocratic（個人）-Participative（集體） decision making style第40頁/共48頁Dealing with complex streams of decisions741第41頁/共48頁Be positive !Positively make your decisionsNot passively742第42頁/共48頁5. Situations of decision making 決策的情形決策的情形 Time- 時間是否充裕 Information-信息與否充分 Acc

35、eptance-相關(guān)者是否接受程度 Ablity-能力是否匹配743第43頁/共48頁Situational Management Decision-Making ModelStep 1 情形診斷Step2 選擇適當(dāng)?shù)臎Q策方法風(fēng)格744第44頁/共48頁決策的情形決策的情形745第45頁/共48頁小組作業(yè)小組作業(yè)-第三周問題：第三周問題： 分析翻譯行業(yè)面臨的外部情形，根據(jù)作業(yè)模擬條件限制情形，草擬一份創(chuàng)業(yè)計劃書 分析崇明島的休閑旅游市場情形，以及自行車休閑旅游業(yè)務(wù)特征，根據(jù)模擬案例給出的條件限制，分析決策：是否要實施業(yè)務(wù)多元化？746第46頁/共48頁747第47頁/共48頁748感謝您的觀看！第48頁/共48頁