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1、Eleventh editionSTEPHEN P. ROBBINS MARY COULTER6263747576677879710P179Eight 出處：羅賓斯 管理學(xué)13e711612613614（有限理性） Decision making thats rational, but are limited (bounded) by an individuals ability to process information. Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality, s
2、o they satisfice715616617618Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.P184潛意識決策情感決策認(rèn)知決策經(jīng)驗決策價值道德決策直覺719720621622623624725P187726 Certainty （確定性）Definition: A situation in which a manage
3、r can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Example: where to deposit money Risk （風(fēng)險性）Definition:A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Example
4、: next page P187627 Uncertainty （不確定性）Definition: A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates availablev Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely o
5、n intuition.628 An Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty Conditionv Maximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffv Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffv Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.629Example: Which Strate
6、gy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISA P189羅賓斯 管理學(xué)630Maxmax choiceMaxmin choiceP189631Minimax choiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18= 21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14= 28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=632v后悔程度最小化決策 633634Linear thinking style Nonlinear thinking styleA decision style characterized by a per
7、sons preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinking A decision style characterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches直覺.635P19163663
8、7638639 1. Being aware of them and then not using them 2. Managers also should pay attention to “how” they make decisions and try to identify the heuristics they typically use and critically evaluate how appropriate those are. 3. Helps from people around to identify weaknesses in their decision-making style, and try to improve themP192Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking style Immediate time taken decision making styleAutocratic（個人）-Participative（集體） decision making style742743744Step 1 情形診斷Step2 選擇適當(dāng)?shù)臎Q策方法風(fēng)格745746747748
羅賓斯管理學(xué) 決策
