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譯文題目:Development of Used Car Market in China
中國二手車市場的發(fā)展
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Development of Used Car Market in China
ABSTRACT
Although still in its early development phase, rapid growth of auto ownership has also injected new vitality for used car market in China. Under the support of series policy, the used car market reveals leaping development character with qualified changes. It is essential to understand the new changes in the used car market. This paper conducted research on the new features of used car market in China to promote its development. Environment analysis showed that used car market will be strongly enhanced by the blooming of auto market, rapid GDP growth and policy support, which experienced steady trade scale increase and structure optimization. The used car trade experienced steady trade scale increase and structure optimization. Along with the purchasing pattern changing, significant expansion of the second- hand car market is imminent, even with hinder issues such as lack of integrity, evaluation criteria and after-service system, and incomplete policy and regulation. Several new features were identified, strong policy support, enlarging market scale and irradiation loop, remarkable concentration increase, increased status of brand used car, and enhanced trading service platform establishment. It is indicated that China’s used car market is making the shift from subordinate position to one of the dominant positions in auto industry, which is expected into a high speed, up-going development passage in the future.
Keywords: Used Car Market; Development; New Features; China
1.Introduction
With the rapid social and economical development, China has become one of the most important markets in the world for the automotive industry. In recent years, the scale of China’s automotive after-sales service market continues to increase. Analyzing from the policy, market, development potential and other aspects, the Annual Report on Automotive Industry in China (2010) found that, in the “Twelfth Five-Year” period, China’s automotive after-sales service market will maintain an annual growth rate of about 8 percent by a conservative estimate, and reach up to about RMB252.3 billion Yuan in 2015 .
Contemporarily, the rapid growth of auto ownership has also injected new vitality for second-hand car market. The trading volume of the used car market rose from 370 thousand to 4.33 million from 2001 to 2011, with an annual increase beyond 30%. The average trading ration between used car and new car is 0.24, which indicates the growing proportion of used car in auto industry. In recent years, such operating models as used car brokers, used car auction and used car replacement have emerged in the market successively. The alteration of trading models provides new engines for the development of the used car market in China. It is estimated that the trade volume ratio between used and new car would reach 1:1 in the next ten years.
However, China’s used car trade market is still in low proportion in the auto industry, even with its rapid growth. According to the experience of western advanced countries, taking USA as an example, the benefits from used car sector accounts for 45% of the whole auto industry, and the average profit from one used car is around 20% .
Under the support of series policy, the used car market reveals leaping development character with qualified changes. From 2000, China’s used car market experience high growth, and gradually became the major part of the auto industry. The used car market already made the shift from the subordinate position to one of the dominant positions in the auto industry. It is vital to understand the new changes in the used car market. Thus this paper conducted research on the new environment of the used car market, probed into its new features, thus to further promote the development of the used car market in China.
2.Environment Analysis
2.1. Auto Market Status Analysis
Due to the rapid development in auto industry, China’s auto market is becoming the most important area for auto trade and manufacture. Fast expands was observed in China’s auto industry. From 2002 to 2011, auto trade volume rose from 3.25 million to 18.51 billion, increasing almost 6 times, with 23.5% annual increment.
Consequently, the car volume per thousand people grew steadily in China, from 3.7 to 46.8 in 2001 to 2011, increased 12.7 times. According to the auto market development, China’s auto market is in the massive popularization stage. In the stage, car volume will keep fast increase until the car volume per thousand people exceeds 250. Usually, it will last 10 years. Due to the regional difference in income, population, economy, this stage may last longer in China. Experts from State Information Center estimated that this stage may last until 2013, with 12% - 14% increment annually.
Therefore, the ever growing car volume due to the popularization stage of auto market, will provide more room and solid foundation for used car market development in China.
Therefore, the ever growing car volume due to the popularization stage of auto market, will provide more room and solid foundation for used car market development in China.
2.2. Economy Environment Analysis
Development of Auto market is positively related to economy development and people’s income. As the biggest population in the world, the market potential is enormous. Recently, China economy keeps steady and fast increase. Real GDP Per Capital increased from 1041$ in 2001 to 5432$ in 2011, with 17.4% annual increment.
As resident’s income level is the key factor for auto population, the fast growth in income will transfer into higher demand increase in China auto market, which will enhance the development of used car market in China. In a relatively long period, the auto and used car demand will keep a vigorous stage. The State Development Center and Auto Engineering Association estimated that the total vehicle demand in 2030 will be 32.43 million, with 8.8% annual increment, and the car volume per thousand people will exceed 100. This increase will stand for a relative long period.
2.3. Policy Analysis
Apart from consumer demand, several government policies and regulations have boosted the used-car market.
The Administrative Measures on Used Cars, released in 2005, are the primary regulation governing the used-car market. The measures introduced a competition mechanism that allows OEM-authorized auto dealerships to run used-car businesses. The measures also regulate different parties—including trading markets, agents and operators—and strengthen the ad- ministration of organizations that appraise the value of used cars.
The Notice on Upgrading the Used-Car Trade Market was announced by the ministries of Commerce and Finance in July 2009. The circular aimed to improve the used-car industry. Initially, the PRC government selected 10 provinces and municipalities—Beijing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Zhejiang—to receive ?s- cal funding to conduct pilot programs that focused on the management and information on used-car transactions to improve transparency.
The Auto Industry Revitalization Plan, released in 2009 by the State Council, calls for the establishment of a national appraisal and evaluation standards system and a temporary ownership registration system. The plan also calls for adjusting the value-added tax rate on used car transactions and encourages dealer-ships to participate in vehicle replacement programs.
The Twelfth Five-Year Plan encouraged consumer to purchase energy saving and environment vehicle. Series vehicle subsidy and tax reduction on low emission and new energy vehicle were implemented, which have direct influence on the future used car market. There would be increase in low emission and new energy used car in the future .
3.Current Status of Used Car Market
3.1. Trade Scale Kept Steady Growth
Used car market increased dramatically in China from 2001. The trade volume rose from 0.37 million to 4.79 million in 2012, increased by 13 times. The average increment from 2001 to 2012 was 29.9% .
The The ratio for used car and new car increased from 0.16 to 0.23, averagely 0.24 from 2001 to 2011, nationwide. In some advanced area, like Beijing, the ratio already reached 1:1 in 2011. Along with the expansion of new car market, used car market was enhanced, conesquently. It is estimated that the trade of used car and new car will come to 1:1 in 10 to 15 years in China.
Consequently, the transaction money for used car trade increased steadily, which rose from 13.2 Billion Yuan in 2001 to 263.6 Billion Yuan in 2012. The annual increment was 33.7% . The proportion of used car market in auto industry increased steadily, with the average proportion of 5.5% from 2004 to 2010 .
The growing used car market is becoming the most important part of auto industry, which provide the foundation for leaping development.
3.2. Used Car Trade Kept Optimized
After years of rapid development, the trade structure is optimizing. Along with the trade volume increase, saloon car gradually took major proportion in used car trade. After 2008, saloon car account for more than 50% of used car market share.
In the used car market, domestic brand car had the absolute dominant position, which accounts more than 95%. On the car age, even with decrease, used car in 3 - 10 years still took the leading position, which still had 75% share in 2011. Trade of used car below 3-year increased over the last few year, with 18.74% share in 2011.
Obvious regional difference was observed in China’s used car market. According to the statistics from China Automobile Dealers Association, used car trade concentrated in the developed area. The first fifth regions account for 55.14% for used car trade in China, while the first tenth regions account for 77.02%. However, slight decrease was observed in those developed regions. This was probably due to the high level of used car trade in previous years already reduced the market demand.
For the less developed area, rapid development was observed. Even with low market share, auto market was driven by the fast economy growth. The huge market potential was released, thus the used car trade increased very fast.
Besides that, used car trade was mainly in local area. In 2010, local registered used car account for 88.27% of the total volume. This was due to the complex ownership transfer and registration procedure for cross regional transaction, and high cost. This had significant effect on rational circulation of used car.
3.3. Purchasing Pattern Changed
As a matter of fact, growth in the second-hand car market surpassed the sales growth of new cars. Used car grew by near 20% in volume terms in 2011, reaching over 4.3 million. Indeed, as this trend intensifies, the used car segment will outstrip the new car segment in absolute terms as well. More specifically, given the current trend, almost 19 million used cars are expected to change hands in 2017. That translates into an impressive compounded annual growth rate of over 30%.
One important reason for this change is the purchasing pattern of Chinese consumers. On average, 60% of Chinese car owners replace their cars every three years – much more frequent than other national car markets. This disposition is more apparent in the high-end segment. Here, automobile turnover is particularly strong due to fast-changing demands from wealthy individuals and a purchase pattern that closely correlates with their businesses’ profitability. Cars that have barely been used enter the second-hand auto market, attracting new buyers in the process.
Moreover, consumer attitudes are changing. From being viewed as mere status symbols, cars are now increasingly being bought for reasons of functionality and transportation. Additionally, as most people currently buy cars for their first time, they will not be as willing to spend a fortune on a new car. Especially as government policies are now helping car penetration deepen and spread to rural areas and lower-tier cities in China, where an estimated 700 million people live and purchasing power is much weaker. So, second-hand cars are becoming viable and desirable options for an increasing number of Chinese.
With the increased supply of used cars to the auto market and the Chinese becoming more comfortable with the idea of second-hand car purchases, this segment is set to grow substantially in the coming years. Although there are some concerns, such as absence of trust between buyer and seller, as the market becomes more established and formalized through authorized dealerships, this problem will likely diminish in the future. And despite governmental policies that largely block second-hand cars from first-tier city markets, they are more attractive options for Chinese living in other areas, especially in poorer, rural areas and lower-tier cities. So, significant expansion of the second-hand car market is imminent and this creates many opportunities for used car trade and related companies.
4.New Features of Used Car Market
4.1. Issues of Used Car Market
As one of the important parts of auto market, used car market kept 20% - 30% increase annually. However, the used car market is still in the preliminary stage, com- pared to the advanced market in western countries. Several dominant issues were as follows.
First, lack of integrity in used car market. The lack of trust between buyer and seller currently remains a huge problem impeding the used car market in China. Chinese consumers, have few resources to help them understand the value of older vehicles. Used car broker often makes traps for consumer for high profit. There are quality, price and legal risk for consumers. And few mechanics are experienced enough to value cars independently. Due to the lack of trust, many potential used car demands cannot transfer into real market demand. Some foreign automakers are hoping to address this problem by setting up programs to sell certified pre-owned cars with war-rantee protection. As the used car market continues to evolve, this issue would be solved.
Second, lack of used car evaluation criteria. Currently, there was no systematic used car value assessment criteria and residual value releasing system. On the national side, no rule proclaimed for used car evaluation and value assessment. In practical used car trade, car evaluation is mostly subjective evaluation, only few companies have specialized equipment. Thus the evaluation result depends on the experience and responsibility of estimator, which weaken the fairness and rationality. When residual value assessment, simple average life span depreciation were used, without rational basis and reference, which reduce the fairness of value measurement.
Third, lack of after-sell service systems. The used car market only had the function for industry and commercial bureau verification, and registration, did not have essential service function, facility and service method. One package service has been provided in new car market, but not in used car market. This is far more behind advanced countries. Due to the lack of proper service system, the confidence of consumer was affected, and the expansion of used car market was restricted.
Fourth, incomplete policies and regulations for used car market. Access restriction is quite low in China, which result in low technical ability, poor management and irregular transaction, and weaken consumer’s confidence. The tax difference for different trade bodies for broker (0%), company (2%), auction (4%), and trade market (0%), result in chaos and unfairness in used car market . There is no systematic used car evaluation and assessment criteria. The irrational and subject evaluation and assessment result from different personnel reduced the real indication on car real value, which restrict the market development. A rational evaluation system should be established nation-wide.
5.Conclusions
Environment analysis showed that used car market will be strongly enhanced by the blooming of auto market, rapid GDP growth and policy support. The used car trade experienced a steady trade scale increase and structure optimization. Along with the purchasing pattern changing, significant expansion of the second-hand car market is imminent, even with hinder issues such as lack of integrity, evaluation criteria and after-service system, and incomplete policy and regulation.
The new features of China’s used car market were identified. First, strong policy support will promote its upper development. Second, both market scale and market irradiation loop will enlarge. Third, there will be remarkable concentration increase in used car trade. Four, brand used car will gradually take an important role. Finally, trading service platform establishment will be the main content of the used car market. The market feature indicated that a major turning point was taking place, which showed that China’s used car market is making the shift from the subordinate position to one of the dominant positions in the auto industry. China’s used car market is expected into a high speed, up-going development passage.
中國二手車市場的發(fā)展
摘要
中國二手車市場雖然仍然處在早期的發(fā)展階段,但是汽車的保有量的迅速增長也給中國二手車市場增加了新的活力。在一系列政策的支持下,二手車市場具有跳躍式發(fā)展的特征。所以了解二手車市場的新變化是很重要的。本文對中國的二手車市場的新特點進行了研究以促進我國二手車市場的發(fā)展。市場環(huán)境分析表明,汽車市場的開放,國民生產總值的快速增長和相關政策支持,都有利于二手車貿易的規(guī)模增長與結構優(yōu)化。隨著采購模式的改變,二手車市場的擴張迫在眉睫,但還存在著許多阻礙發(fā)展的問題,如缺乏完整性,缺乏評價標準和完整的售后服務體系,以及政策和監(jiān)管的不完善。二手車的幾個新特點注定了他有高的關注度并會獲得強大的政策支持,這使得二手車行業(yè)擴大了市場規(guī)模,顯著提高了集中度,加快了交易服務平臺的建立。這說明我國二手車市場正從“下屬”向汽車產業(yè)的主導地位轉變,這是一個未來高速發(fā)展的通道。
關鍵詞:二手車市場;發(fā)展;新特點;中國
1、介紹
隨著我國經濟的飛速發(fā)展,中國已經成為世界上最重要的汽車消費市場之一。近年來,我國汽車的售后服務市場持續(xù)增加。從政策、市場、發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ确矫鎭砜矗覈嚠a業(yè)2010年度報告發(fā)現(xiàn),在“十二五”期間,我國汽車售后服務市場保守估計將保持每年百分之8左右的速度增長,在2015年將達到約人民幣252.3億元。
同時,汽車保有量的快速增長也為二手車市場注入了新的活力。從2001到2011年,二手車市場交易量從37萬上升到433萬,年增長超過30%。二手車與新車的平均交易數(shù)量比例是0.24,這說明二手汽車在汽車產業(yè)中的比例越來越大。近年來,二手車經紀人,二手車拍賣和二手車置換已經出現(xiàn)在市場上并且發(fā)展的很成功。交易模式的改變?yōu)橹袊周囀袌龅陌l(fā)展提供了新的動力。據(jù)估計,在未來十年內新車和二手車之間的貿易額比將達到1:1。
然而,中國二手車交易市場在其快速增長的同時在汽車產業(yè)中的比例仍然很低,。根據(jù)西方發(fā)達國家的經驗,以美國為例,二手汽車行業(yè)的利潤占整個汽車行業(yè)的45%,一輛二手車的平均利潤是20%左右。
在一系列政策的支持下,二手車市場呈現(xiàn)出跳躍式的發(fā)展特征,而且具有合理的變化。從2000年起,我國二手車市場經歷了高速增長,并逐漸成為第汽車工業(yè)的主要部分。二手車市場已經從從屬地位轉向汽車產業(yè)的主導地位。了解二手車市場的新的變化是至關重要的。因此,本文對二手車市場的新環(huán)境進行了研究,探討了其新的特點,從而進一步促進了二手車市場的發(fā)展市場在中國。
2、環(huán)境分析
2.1汽車市場現(xiàn)狀分析
由于汽車工業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,我國汽車市場正逐漸成為汽車貿易和制造業(yè)的重要領域。中國的汽車工業(yè)一直在快速擴張。從2002年到2011年,汽車貿易量從325萬上升到18.51億,增加了近6倍,年均增長23.5%。
因此,從2001年到2011年,中國每一千人的擁有的汽車數(shù)量正在穩(wěn)步增長,從3.7到46.8,,增加了12.7倍。根據(jù)汽車市場的發(fā)展,中國的汽車市場正在大規(guī)模普及階段。在舞臺上,汽車的數(shù)量將保持快速增長,直到汽車數(shù)量每千人超過250。通常,它會持續(xù)10年。由于該區(qū)在人口、經濟收入、教育等方面的差異,,這個階段在中國可能會持續(xù)更長的時間。國家信息中心估計,這個階段可能會保持12% - 14%的增量持續(xù)到2013年。
因此,汽車市場推廣階段的汽車數(shù)量日益增長,將為我國二手車市場的發(fā)展提供更多的空間和堅實的基礎。
2.2經濟環(huán)境分析
汽車市場的發(fā)展與經濟發(fā)展和人民收入呈正相關。作為世界上人口最多的國家,我國汽車市場潛力巨大。近年來,中國經濟保持穩(wěn)定快速的增長。每增加一個資本的實際國內生產總值從2001年的1041美元增加到2011年的5432美元,平均每年增加17.4%。
隨著居民收入水平的提高,我國汽車市場得到快速增長,收入的快速增長,促進我國汽車市場的快速發(fā)展,這將促進我國二手汽車市場的快速發(fā)展。在一個相對較長的時期內,汽車和二手車的需求將保持旺盛的階段。國家發(fā)展中心和汽車工程協(xié)會估計,在2030年的對于汽車的需求量將為3243萬輛,達到8.8%的年增長率,每千人的汽車擁有量將超過100。這一增長將會持續(xù)一個相對較長的時期。
2.3政策分析
除了消費需求,一些政府的政策和法規(guī)推動了二手車市場。2005年頒發(fā)的二手汽車汽車的行政措施,是對二手車市場的主要調節(jié)措施。該措施引入了一個競爭機制,允許授權的經銷商經營二手車業(yè)務。這個方案能夠同時調節(jié)不同的當事人包括交易市場,代理商和運營商來加強組織管理和二手車價值的評估。
2009年7月,商務部和財政部宣布了對二手車交易市場進行升級的通知。目的在提高汽車行業(yè)的循環(huán)利用。最初,中國政府選擇10個省和直轄市包括北京,湖北,江蘇,江西,遼寧,山東,上海,深圳,天津和浙江來接受財政資金進行試點,用于對二手車交易和信息的管理,提高透明度。
2009年國務院發(fā)布了汽車產業(yè)振興規(guī)劃,要求建立一個國家評估標準體系,并建立一個臨時的所有權登記制度系統(tǒng)。該計劃還要求調整二手車交易增值稅稅率,鼓勵經銷商參與車輛更換計劃。
第十二個五年計劃鼓勵消費者購買節(jié)能環(huán)保車。計劃中實施了一系列汽車補貼和低排放的新能源汽車減稅措施,這對未來二手車市場有直接影響。低排放和新能源汽車在未來將會有增加。
3、二手車市場現(xiàn)狀
3.1貿易規(guī)模保持穩(wěn)定增長
中國二手車市場從2001大幅增長。交易量從37萬上升到2012年的479萬,增加了13倍。從2001到2012的平均增長率為29.9%。
從2001年到2011年間全國二手車與新車的比例從0.16增加到0.23,平均為0.24。在一些發(fā)達地區(qū),如北京,2011年已經達到1:1的比例。隨著新的汽車市場的擴大,二手車市場明顯增強。據(jù)估計,中國二手車與新車交易比會在10到15年之內增加到1:1。
因此,二手車交易的交易資金穩(wěn)步上升,在2001年到2012年間,交易額從132億元上漲至2636億元。年增長率為33.7%。二手車市場在汽車市場中的比例穩(wěn)步增長,從2004年到
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