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1、 網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程異軍突起 An army of new online courses is scaring the wits out of traditional universities. But can they find a viable business model? 浩浩蕩蕩的新型網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程對(duì)傳統(tǒng)大學(xué)造成了不小的威脅，它能發(fā)展出可行的商業(yè)模式嗎？ DOTCOM mania was slow in coming to higher education, but now it has the venerable industry firmly in its grip. Since t

2、he launch early last year of Udacity and Coursera, two Silicon Valley start-ups offering free education through MOOCs, massive open online courses, the ivory towers of academia have been shaken to their foundations. University brands built in some cases over centuries have been forced to contemplate

3、 the possibility that information technology will rapidly make their existing business model obsolete. Meanwhile, the MOOCs have multiplied in number, resources and student recruitment—without yet having figured out a business model of their own. 網(wǎng)絡(luò)狂熱在教育界一直波瀾不興，不過(guò)最近網(wǎng)絡(luò)已征服這一神圣的行業(yè)。隨著去年上半年硅谷兩家新秀Udacity

4、和Coursera通過(guò)MOOC（大規(guī)模網(wǎng)絡(luò)公開(kāi)課平臺(tái)）開(kāi)通免費(fèi)在線課程，象牙塔內(nèi)學(xué)術(shù)權(quán)威的地位遭到了動(dòng)搖。幾個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)聲名遠(yuǎn)揚(yáng)的大學(xué)也開(kāi)始心里打鼓，擔(dān)心信息技術(shù)會(huì)很快造成其現(xiàn)行商業(yè)模式過(guò)時(shí)。另外，在沒(méi)有自身商業(yè)模式的情況下，MOOC在數(shù)量、資源和招生人數(shù)上已翻了好幾番。 Besides providing online courses to their own (generally fee-paying) students, universities have felt obliged to join the MOOC revolution to avoid being guillotine

5、d by it. Coursera has formed partnerships with 83 universities and colleges around the world, including many of America’s top-tier institutions. 除了為本學(xué)校的學(xué)生提供在線課程外（通常情況下須付費(fèi)），各個(gè)大學(xué)覺(jué)得自己有義務(wù)加入MOOC變革的陣營(yíng)，從而避免被逼上絕路。Coursera已經(jīng)與來(lái)自世界各地的83所大學(xué)建立合作關(guān)系，其中包括美國(guó)的不少頂尖學(xué)府。 EdX, a non-profit MOOC provider founded in May 2

6、012 by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and backed with $60m of their money, is now a consortium of 28 institutions, the most recent joiner being the Indian Institute of Technology in Mumbai. Led by the Open University, which pioneered distance-learning in the 1970s,

7、FutureLearn, a consortium of 21 British, one Irish and one Australian university, plus other educational bodies, will start offering MOOCs later this year. But Oxford and Cambridge remain aloof, refusing to join what a senior Oxford figure fears may be a “l(fā)emming-like rush” into MOOCs. EdX是一家非盈利性MO

8、OC供應(yīng)商，由哈佛大學(xué)和麻省理工學(xué)院出資6000美元于2012年5月成立。如今它已發(fā)展成包括28個(gè)學(xué)校在內(nèi)的聯(lián)合體，最新成員是印度孟買的技術(shù)學(xué)院。開(kāi)放式大學(xué)是上世紀(jì)90年代遠(yuǎn)程教育的先驅(qū)，在其帶領(lǐng)下由21所英國(guó)大學(xué)、一所愛(ài)爾蘭大學(xué)和一所澳大利亞大學(xué)組成的FutureLearn將于今年下半年開(kāi)始提供開(kāi)放式課程。但是牛津和劍橋仍然敬而遠(yuǎn)之，劍橋的一位權(quán)威人士稱，他們不想“趨之若鶩”。 On July 10th Coursera said it had raised another $43m in venture capital, on top of the $22m it banked last

9、 year. Although its enrolments have soared, and now exceed 4m students, this is a huge leap of faith by investors that the firm can develop a viable business model. The new money should allow Coursera to build on any advantage it has from being a first mover among a rapidly growing number of MOOC pr

10、oviders. “It is somewhat entertaining to watch the number of people jumping on board,” says Daphne Koller, a Stanford professor and co-founder of Coursera. She expects it to become one of a “very small number of dominant players”. 7月10日Coursera發(fā)布消息，在去年2200萬(wàn)美元存款的基礎(chǔ)上，它又通過(guò)風(fēng)投募集到4300萬(wàn)美元。它的招生人數(shù)也突飛猛進(jìn)，如今已突

11、破400萬(wàn)，這也使得投資者信心猛增，認(rèn)為該公司能夠發(fā)展出可行的商業(yè)模式。Coursera可以借助這筆新款項(xiàng)，充分發(fā)揮任何一個(gè)有利條件，在迅速增加的MOOC供應(yīng)商中搶占先機(jī)。斯坦福大學(xué)教授、Coursera創(chuàng)始人之一的Daphne Koller說(shuō)，看到越來(lái)越多的人參與進(jìn)來(lái)可謂樂(lè)在其中。她希望Coursera成為鳳毛麟角的主導(dǎo)型玩家。 The industry has similar network economics to Amazon, eBay and Google, says Ms Koller, in that “content producers go to where most c

12、onsumers are, and consumers go to where the most content is.” Simon Nelson, the chief executive of FutureLearn, disagrees. “Anyone who thinks the rules of engagement have already been written by the existing players is massively underestimating the potential of the technology,” he says. Daphne Koll

13、er稱這一行業(yè)與亞馬遜、易貝和谷歌等網(wǎng)購(gòu)經(jīng)濟(jì)類似，共同點(diǎn)在于“供應(yīng)商逐消費(fèi)者而居，消費(fèi)者逐產(chǎn)品而居”。不過(guò)FutureLearn的首席執(zhí)行官Simon Nelson不認(rèn)同這一觀點(diǎn)。他認(rèn)為“如果有人認(rèn)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程的游戲規(guī)則已被現(xiàn)存行業(yè)總結(jié)出來(lái)，那他就大大低估了網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的潛力”。 Certainly, there is plenty of experimentation with business models taking place. The MOOCs themselves may be free, but those behind them think there will be plen

14、ty of revenue opportunities. Coursera has started charging to provide certificates for those who complete its courses and want proof, perhaps for a future employer. It is also starting to license course materials to universities that want to beef up their existing offering. However, it has abandoned

15、 for now attempts to help firms recruit employees from among Coursera’s students, because catering to the different needs of each employer was “not a scalable model”, says Ms Koller. 自然，適用的商業(yè)模式還需要大量實(shí)驗(yàn)。網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程是免費(fèi)的，不過(guò)幕后經(jīng)營(yíng)者認(rèn)為并不缺乏賺錢的機(jī)會(huì)。Coursera已開(kāi)始向修完全部課程并需要證明材料（日后找工作時(shí)或許用得上）的學(xué)員提供收費(fèi)證書。還有些大學(xué)想要充實(shí)現(xiàn)行課程，Coursera

16、就為其課程教材頒發(fā)許可證。不過(guò)Coursera暫時(shí)不與公司合作招聘網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程學(xué)員，Daphne Koller解釋說(shuō)，雇主對(duì)雇員的要求千差萬(wàn)別，“沒(méi)有可縮放的模型”來(lái)滿足他們的不同要求。 For Udacity, in contrast, working with companies to train existing and future employees is now the heart of its business model. It has tie-ups with several firms, including Google. It recently formed a partn

17、ership with AT&T, along with Georgia Tech, to offer a master’s degree in computer science. Course materials will be free, but students will pay around $7,000 for tuition. EdX is taking yet another tack, selling its MOOC technology to universities like Stanford, both to create their own MOOC offering

18、s and to make physically attending university more attractive, by augmenting existing teaching. 與之相反，Udacity的核心商業(yè)模式就是與公司合作，培訓(xùn)現(xiàn)任和未來(lái)的職員。它與若干公司建立了聯(lián)系，其中包括谷歌。最近它與AT&T和喬治亞理工大學(xué)建立了合作關(guān)系，提供計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)專業(yè)的碩士學(xué)位。課程教材是免費(fèi)的，不過(guò)學(xué)員要支付約7000美元的學(xué)費(fèi)。EdX則采取另一種套路，它將MOOC技術(shù)賣給斯坦福等大學(xué)，這樣既能開(kāi)設(shè)自己的MOOC網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程，又能通過(guò)充實(shí)現(xiàn)行教學(xué)增強(qiáng)實(shí)體大學(xué)的吸引力。 This lectu

19、re is brought to you by… 這堂課來(lái)自…… Alison, an Irish provider of free, mostly vocational education founded in 2007, before MOOCs got their name, is generating plenty of revenue by selling advertising on its site. “Ads propelled radio and TV, why not education? There is a lot of misplaced snobbery in

20、education about advertising,” says Mike Feerick, Alison’s founder. 愛(ài)爾蘭網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程（多為職業(yè)教育）供應(yīng)商Alison成立于2007年，那時(shí)MOOC尚未得名。Alison通過(guò)在網(wǎng)站上展播廣告賺得盆滿缽滿。Alison創(chuàng)始人Mike Feerick稱，“廣告促進(jìn)了廣播和電視的發(fā)展，教育為何不能分一杯羹呢？教育不該對(duì)廣告擺臭架子”。 Another important category of MOOC providers are publishers, says Rob Lytle of the Parthenon Group,

21、a consultancy. He says firms like Pearson (part-owner of The Economist) that run educational businesses such as textbook-publishing may thrive by offering free MOOCs as a way to get people to buy their related paid content. 咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)Parthenon集團(tuán)的Rob Lytle說(shuō)，MOOC供應(yīng)商的另一種重要類別是出版商。他說(shuō)經(jīng)營(yíng)教育類業(yè)務(wù)（如出版教材）、類似Pearson（持

22、有《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》部分股權(quán)）這樣的公司，通過(guò)提供網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程，促使消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買相關(guān)教材，一定會(huì)蓬勃發(fā)展。 Besides the uncertainty over which business model, if any, will produce profits, there is disagreement over how big the market will be. Some see a zero- or negative-sum game, in which cheap online providers radically reduce the cost of higher educatio

23、n and drive many traditional institutions to the wall. Others believe this effect will be dwarfed by the dramatic increase in access to higher education that the MOOCs will bring. 就算找到合適的商業(yè)模式順利盈利，這一市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模大小仍然存在爭(zhēng)議。有些人認(rèn)為會(huì)出現(xiàn)零和甚至負(fù)和的局面，廉價(jià)的網(wǎng)課造成高等教育成本跳樓，將很多傳統(tǒng)大學(xué)逼到絕路。其他人則認(rèn)為MOOC會(huì)顯著拓展接受高等教育的途徑，這樣一來(lái)負(fù)面影響就不值一提。

24、Mr Feerick predicts that the market will be commoditised, spelling trouble for many institutions. But Anant Agarwal, the boss of EdX, reckons the MOOC providers will be more like online airline-booking services, expanding the market by improving the customer experience. Sebastian Thrun, Udacity’s co

25、-founder, thinks the effect will be similar in magnitude to what the creation of cinema did to demand for staged fiction: he predicts a tenfold increase in the market for higher education. Feerick預(yù)測(cè)這一市場(chǎng)將被商品化，使很多大學(xué)陷入被動(dòng)。不過(guò)EdX的老板Anant Agarwal認(rèn)為，MOOC的供應(yīng)商就像網(wǎng)絡(luò)機(jī)票預(yù)訂服務(wù)一樣，通過(guò)改善用戶體驗(yàn)來(lái)拓展市場(chǎng)。Udacity的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人Sebastian

26、 Thrun則認(rèn)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程的作用就像電影院對(duì)舞臺(tái)劇的影響一樣，他預(yù)測(cè)高等教育市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模將擴(kuò)大十倍 。 Sceptics point to the MOOCs’ high drop-out rates, which in some cases exceed 90%. But Coursera and Udacity both insist that this reflects the different expectations of consumers of free products, who can browse costlessly. Both firms have now stud

27、ied drop-out rates for those students who start with the stated intention of finishing, and found that the vast majority of them complete the courses. 懷疑派指出MOOC提高了輟學(xué)率，在一些案例中甚至超過(guò)90%。不過(guò)Coursera和Udacity都堅(jiān)持這種情況反映了消費(fèi)者對(duì)免費(fèi)產(chǎn)品的不同預(yù)期，他們可以分文不花瀏覽相關(guān)課程。根據(jù)學(xué)員的修課意向，兩家公司在課程伊始就跟蹤調(diào)查學(xué)員的退學(xué)率，結(jié)果他們發(fā)現(xiàn)絕大多數(shù)學(xué)員修滿了課程。 Besides Le

28、arnCapital, a Silicon Valley venture firm, and the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, the participants in Coursera’s $43m fund-raising included Laureate, an operator of for-profit universities. Doug Becker, its boss, reckons that many established universities will soon offer credits tow

29、ards their degrees for those who complete MOOCs. He thinks this will drive a dramatic reduction in the price of a traditional higher education, that will reduce the total revenues of existing providers by far more than the revenue gained by the start-ups. Still, if MOOCs reduce the cost of higher ed

30、ucation by one-third, as he predicts, yet only earn for themselves 1% of that benefit, that would “still be a very nice business,” he says. 除了硅谷投機(jī)公司LearnCapital和世界銀行國(guó)際金融公司，Coursera公司4300萬(wàn)美元的出資方還包括盈利性大學(xué)經(jīng)營(yíng)商Laureate。Laureate的老板Doug Becker認(rèn)為很多現(xiàn)有大學(xué)會(huì)很快向修完MOOC的學(xué)員提供學(xué)分，從而取得該學(xué)校的學(xué)位。他還認(rèn)為這將大大降低傳統(tǒng)高等教育的學(xué)費(fèi)，進(jìn)而降低現(xiàn)行供應(yīng)商和新秀供應(yīng)商的總利潤(rùn)，不過(guò)新老供應(yīng)商的利潤(rùn)下滑程度可謂小巫見(jiàn)大巫。Doug Becker預(yù)測(cè)即便如此，假如MOOC高等教育成本降低三分之一，只為自身獲得1%的利益，那“仍是一筆不錯(cuò)的買賣”。 【注釋】大型開(kāi)放式網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程，即MOOC（massive open online courses）。2012年，美國(guó)的頂尖大學(xué)陸續(xù)設(shè)立網(wǎng)絡(luò)學(xué)習(xí)平臺(tái)，在網(wǎng)上提供免費(fèi)課程，Coursera、Udacity、edX三大課程提供商的興起，給更多學(xué)生提供了系統(tǒng)學(xué)習(xí)的可能。 8 習(xí)題與教育