工程管理專業(yè) 畢業(yè)論文文獻(xiàn)翻譯 中英文對照

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1、 河北建筑工程學(xué)院 畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）外文資料翻譯 系別： 管理系 專業(yè)： 工程管理 班級： 管072 姓名： 學(xué)號： 2007310223 外文出處： Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk Management Kim Heldman

2、 附 件：1、外文原文；2、外文資料翻譯譯文。 指導(dǎo)教師評語： 簽字： 年 月 日 Defining Risk Response Plans You’ve identified your risks, analyzed them for their impacts on the project, assigned probabilities and impact values, determined an expected value, and ra

3、nked them in order. You’ve also determined which of the risks, given all those conditions, require response plans. This chapter discusses what risk response plans are, the techniques for developing response plans, and how to document and write plans for those risks that have a high probability and h

4、igh impact on the project. Let’s get to it. Risk Response Planning Risk Response Planning is the process of deciding what actions to take to educe threats (especially to schedule and cost) while taking advantage of he opportunities other risks present. Typically, you’ll want to develop risk respo

5、nse plans for risks with the potential for high probability and high impact. It isn’t efficient to spent time writing response plans for risks you’ve determined aren’t likely to occur and won’t impact the project significantly if they do. For example, if I’m building a tourist center in the Mojave D

6、esert, I wouldn’t spend time on a risk response plan for the possibility of rain（It does rain in the Mojave an average of 2.5 inches per year), so the possibility exists, but it’s highly unlikely it would impact my project. I’ll deal with these types of risks in the “Contingency Planning” section a

7、little later in this chapter. Remember that risk management planning, including the development of risk response plans, isn’t a one-time exercise. As you progress through the project and learn more about potential risk events, you’ll reevaluate their impacts, which may require a change in strategy

8、to deal with the risk and a new or revised response plan. And even though I’ve focused primarily on risks that prevent you from meeting the goals of the project, don’t forget that risks can produce opportunities. Uncertain Certainty One thing is certain: your project does have risks, and if you ch

9、oose to ignore them, your project will have an uncertain outcome. All project risk is closely linked with the availability of information and communication, or the lack thereof, as I’ve talked about previously. The more information you have, the more likely you’re able to predict the risk event and

10、its impacts. And the better you’re able to predict risk impacts, the better you’ll be at creating risk response plans. When thinking about risk response plans, keep in mind that risk out-comes generally fall into three categories: * Known risks with predictable outcomes * Known risks with uncert

11、ain outcomes * Unknown risks with unpredictable outcomes These are fairly straightforward. A known risk is something you know has the potential to happen. The term predictable outcomes implies you know with reasonable certainty what the impacts and outcomes of the risk events would be if they occu

12、rred. Unpredictable outcomes are impacts and consequences of the risk event that aren’t fully identified or known. Let’s use a simple example to explain each of these outcomes. You’ve decided to paint your garage door this weekend. One risk that could keep you from completing this project is the wea

13、ther. No problem—you cruise the Internet and check out the local forecast, which predicts clear and sunny skies, with little possibility of showers. You have the means to learn about the weather (the Internet site) and to determine the certainty of the impact (a 10 percent chance of showers). That m

14、eans you know, with predictable certainty, that this risk has a low chance of occurring. Known risks with uncertain outcomes are more difficult because, well, their outcomes aren’t certain. However, the amount of uncertainty could vary. You may, for example, know it’s going to rain but not know when

15、 it’ll start or how long it’ll continue. When you’re facing project risks with uncertain outcomes, I recommend learning everything you can about the risk and its possible impacts. (Since the impacts are unpredictable, this isn’t always possible.) You should interview stakeholders, research past proj

16、ects, and try to move as far from the uncertainty end of the spectrum as you can. The more you know, the better. The last bullet listed previously, unknown risks with unpredictable out- comes, says you don’t know about the risk and you don’t know about its impacts. It’s an unknown risk with an unkn

17、own outcome. Suppose you’re happily painting away and are three-quarters finished when a flock of geese happens to fly right over your house. You guessed it. An unknown risk with an unpredictable outcome has occurred. Many project decisions are made without benefit of knowing all the facts, and ri

18、sk analysis is no exception. Risk, after all, is primarily about uncertainty. Analyzing the risks tells you about the possible outcomes for the risk, and the response plan addresses how to deal with those outcomes. The greater your certainty of the outcome, the easier it will be to develop response

19、 plans. For example, if you know rain is a certainty on the day you’re planning on painting the garage, you can devise response plans that are fairly precise. You could postpone the painting to another day and sweep the garage floor instead. Or, perhaps you know with reasonable certainty that the r

20、ain is coming but won’t start until early afternoon. In that case, you could quickly paint the door in the morning while the sun is still out (or the clouds are rolling in) and then flip open the door so it’s protected by the garage ceiling until it dries. Purpose of Planning for Risks The purpose

21、 for risk planning is to determine the most appropriate response to reduce, control, or take advantage of the risk event. Along with determining the response, you’ll want to make certain you’re choosing the right strategy for the risk event. After determining the strategy to use, you’ll develop an a

22、ction plan to put this strategy into play should the risk event occur. The second purpose for risk planning is to determine a risk owner. I talked about risk owners and their responsibility in Chapter 2, “Identifying and Documenting Risks.” Once the plan is developed, the risk owner is the one held

23、 accountable for watching for risk triggers, tracking the risk, recommending the implementation of the response plan if the situation war-rants it, and then monitoring the effectiveness of the response plan once it’s implemented. Risk response planning also has an added benefit. When risk events do

24、 occur, you’ll be able to remain calm, cool, and levelheaded about what to do. Rather than reacting like our friend Ned, you’ll calmly reach for the response plan document and know what to do. When you’re in panic mode, the object is to resolve the problem as quickly as possible. That means you usu

25、ally deal with things the quickest and easiest way you can think of just to get everything under control. But getting immediate control doesn’t necessarily solve the problem in the long run. Response planning allows you determine the best method for dealing with a risk, which gives you a higher prob

26、ability of meeting your project goals. Risk Response Techniques You have several strategies for dealing with risk that help reduce or control the impacts of risk events. The most common strategies are as follows: * Avoidance * Transference * Mitigation * Acceptance * Contingency planning * In

27、dependent verification and validation Each of these techniques has its strengths and weaknesses. Before determining which strategy to use, make certain you understand the type of risk you’re dealing with, as well as the severity of the risk. You’ll want to choose the strategy that will be the most

28、effective and cost efficient for dealing with the risk event. If it costs you more to respond to the risk than the consequences of the risk itself, you may want to consider a different strategy. Avoidance You may have already guessed that the risk avoidance technique is about avoiding risk. True.

29、It encompasses more than that, however. Risk avoidance techniques include the following: * Avoiding the risk altogether * Eliminating the cause of the risk event * Changing the project plan to protect the objectives from the risk event Let’s look at some examples for each technique. Avoiding the

30、 risk altogether implies that you know the outcomes of the risk with relative certainty and can take steps to keep the risk event from occurring. Suppose Ned and the photo-shoot team are headed to the airport to catch their flight to Paris. In keeping with Ned’s usual manner, he has held everyone up

31、 to the last second. If they leave any later, they won’t have time to check the million pieces of luggage Ned is bringing and get through security in time to catch the flight. Sherry, the quick-thinking project manager, decides to do a traffic check before leaving. She logs onto the Internet and fin

32、ds there’s been a major accident on the highway they were planning on taking to the airport. To avoid delays and keep them from missing the flight, Sherry decides on an alternate route that bypasses the accident and avoids the risk event. Eliminating the cause of the risk is a technique that works

33、something like this. Sherry knows that the team’s luggage looks like every other piece of luggage they’re likely to see on an airport conveyor belt. The team is carrying some sensitive company information and a few pieces of specialized equipment. Sherry can eliminate the cause of this risk by carry

34、ing the company material and specialized equipment on board in their carry ones. One of the objectives of the photo assignment is to shoot pictures of Parisians doing everyday tasks—strolling through the park, eating at side-walk cafs, shopping, and so on—outside in the open air. A rainstorm pops u

35、p on the day this shoot is supposed to occur. Sherry changes the project plan by switching an indoor shooting day with the outdoor shooting day to protect the project objectives from the risk event. Avoidance is a great strategy when you can use it. The trouble is it isn’t appropriate for every ris

36、k, so let’s look at some more techniques. 定義風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃 你已經(jīng)定義風(fēng)險(xiǎn),分析了他們對項(xiàng)目的影響、分配的可能性和有影響的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),決定期望中的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并且把他們按目的排列整齊。在考慮到所有條件的情況下，你決定哪個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),需要應(yīng)對計(jì)劃。這一章討論對應(yīng)計(jì)劃的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是什么,開發(fā)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃的技術(shù)，和如何去寫那些關(guān)于出現(xiàn)可能性高，對項(xiàng)目影響大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的計(jì)劃，那就讓我們開始吧。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃是決定采取什么方法去演繹危險(xiǎn)的程序(尤其是對進(jìn)度和成本方面)當(dāng)利用他的機(jī)會的時(shí)候，其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就顯現(xiàn)出來了。 通常,你會想要

37、開發(fā)哪些潛在的高概率和高影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃。它不是高效的去花費(fèi)時(shí)間去寫那些不可能發(fā)生或者如果發(fā)生也不會影響項(xiàng)目重要性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對計(jì)劃。舉例來說,如果我建設(shè)一個(gè)旅游中心在莫哈韋沙漠中,我不會把時(shí)間花在一個(gè)可能下雨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對計(jì)劃上的（莫哈韋沙漠的每年平均降雨量僅為2.5英寸),所以這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)確實(shí)可能存在著,但它幾乎不可能會影響我的項(xiàng)目。我會稍后在本章的“應(yīng)急計(jì)劃”部分中處理這些類型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 記住,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的規(guī)劃,包括開發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃,不是一次性的運(yùn)動。當(dāng)你通過項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)行并且了解更多的潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響,你就會重新評估它們的影響,這可能要求改變戰(zhàn)略來解決這個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和一個(gè)新的或是修正過的應(yīng)對計(jì)

38、劃。盡管已經(jīng)提前關(guān)注哪些可能阻止你達(dá)到項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但也不要忘記風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能產(chǎn)生機(jī)會。 不確定的確定性 有一件事是肯定的:你的項(xiàng)目有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如果你選擇去忽略它們,你的項(xiàng)目將有一個(gè)不確定的結(jié)果。所有的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與信息及交流的可用性密切相關(guān),或缺乏信息及交流,正如我一直在前面談?wù)摰囊粯印Ｄ銚碛械男畔⒃蕉?就越有可能你能預(yù)測其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件及其帶來的影響。你越能更好的確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響，你就越能更好的創(chuàng)造風(fēng)險(xiǎn)引對計(jì)劃在考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃時(shí)，注意風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)果一般可以把它分為三大類: 已知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為可預(yù)測結(jié)果的； 已知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為不確定結(jié)果的； 未知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為不可預(yù)知結(jié)果的； 這是相當(dāng)明確的。一個(gè)已知的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是那些你知道有可能發(fā)

39、生的事情。術(shù)語可預(yù)測的結(jié)果是指當(dāng)某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生時(shí)你可以通過一些原因來知道這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響和結(jié)果是什么。不可預(yù)知的結(jié)果是指那些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響和結(jié)果不能被充分認(rèn)識及了解。讓我們用一個(gè)簡單的例子,去解釋每一個(gè)這樣的結(jié)果。例如你決定在這個(gè)周末把你的車庫門重新刷一遍。其中一個(gè)可能阻礙你完成這個(gè)目的的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)便是天氣情況。沒有問題—你可以瀏覽網(wǎng)絡(luò)來查看一下當(dāng)?shù)氐奶鞖忸A(yù)報(bào),預(yù)報(bào)空氣清晰、天空晴朗,而陣雨的可能性很小。你有一些方法去學(xué)習(xí)關(guān)于天氣的知識(英特網(wǎng)網(wǎng)站)和確定影響的可能性(有百分之十的可能性下陣雨)。這意味著你知道,通過可預(yù)測的可能性,這樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)出現(xiàn)的機(jī)會很低。要知道不確定結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更加困難,嗯,因?yàn)樗?/p>

40、們的結(jié)果是不確定的。然而,不確定因素的數(shù)量是可能變化的。例如,你可能知道要下雨了,但不知道何時(shí)將會開始下雨和雨會持續(xù)多長時(shí)間。當(dāng)你正在面對的是不確定結(jié)果的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),我建議你盡你最大力量去學(xué)習(xí)所有關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其可能產(chǎn)生影響的知識。(因?yàn)橛绊懯菬o法預(yù)料的，這并不總是有可能預(yù)料到的。)你應(yīng)該同利益相關(guān)者見面，研究過去的項(xiàng)目,并盡可能從這些不確定結(jié)果的項(xiàng)目中得到相關(guān)信息。你知道的越多越好。 前面列出的最后一點(diǎn),未知的并且不可預(yù)知結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，是指你不知道某個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并且不知道它會產(chǎn)生的影響。這是一個(gè)未知結(jié)果及不可預(yù)料到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。假設(shè)你正在快樂地刷車庫門，并且當(dāng)一群鵝恰好飛過你的屋子時(shí)，你已完成了四分之三的工

41、作。你猜對了，一個(gè)能不提前知道的并且不可預(yù)知結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。 許多工程決策的制定都沒有從知道所有事實(shí)后這方面中受益，并且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是沒有可以期望的。風(fēng)險(xiǎn),畢竟,主要是關(guān)于不確定性。分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以告訴你風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能發(fā)生的結(jié)果,和應(yīng)對計(jì)劃闡述怎樣處理這些結(jié)果。 你確定的結(jié)果可能性越多,就越容易開發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃。例如,如果你知道在你刷車庫那天下雨是一個(gè)既定事實(shí),你就可以相當(dāng)準(zhǔn)確的設(shè)計(jì)你的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃。你可以推遲刷車庫到新的一天,而這天可以用打掃地板代替。 或者,也許你有理由的確定知道那天會下雨,但直到下午才會開始下雨。在這種情況下,在早上你要盡可能很快就把門刷完當(dāng)天空依舊晴朗時(shí)(或云卷),然后向

42、里開門從而使門上的漆被屋頂保護(hù)，直到漆干了。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃的目的 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃的目的是決定最恰當(dāng)?shù)姆磻?yīng)來減少、控制、或者利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件。隨著確定應(yīng)對計(jì)劃,你會想要確保你對此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件選擇了正確的應(yīng)對方法。之后在確定策略使用時(shí),你要做出活動計(jì)劃來使這個(gè)策略發(fā)揮作用當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生的時(shí)候。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃的第二個(gè)目的是確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的所有者。我在第二章“辨識、記錄的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”中已經(jīng)提到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擁有者及他們應(yīng)負(fù)的責(zé)任。一旦計(jì)劃完成,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的業(yè)主負(fù)責(zé)觀察風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生,跟蹤風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如果出現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的征兆時(shí)業(yè)主要建議實(shí)施應(yīng)對計(jì)劃,并且一旦風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃實(shí)施要監(jiān)測它的有效性。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對計(jì)劃也有一個(gè)額外的好處。當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事情真的發(fā)生時(shí),你就

43、能保持沉著,冷靜,及清醒的頭腦從而知道做什么。 而不是像我們的朋友-奈德那樣的反應(yīng),你會平靜地得到應(yīng)對計(jì)劃文件,進(jìn)而知道該怎么做。當(dāng)你在恐慌模式時(shí),這樣做的目的是為了盡可能快的解決這個(gè)問題。這意味著你通常通過你能想到的最快的最簡單的方式去處理事情，從而使你能讓每件事都在你的掌握之中。但是,在長遠(yuǎn)的計(jì)劃中直接的控制不是必要的解決問題的方法。應(yīng)對計(jì)劃允許你確定解決風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的最佳方法,這讓你有更高的幾率達(dá)到你項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對技術(shù) 你有幾個(gè)策略處理風(fēng)險(xiǎn),它們有助于減少或控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響。最常見的策略是如下: 1、避免 2、轉(zhuǎn)移*緩解 3、接受 4、應(yīng)急計(jì)劃 5、獨(dú)立的驗(yàn)證和確認(rèn)

44、每一種技術(shù)有其優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn)。在決定使用哪個(gè)策略之前,你要確定你了解你正在處理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類型,以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的嚴(yán)重程度。你會想選擇處理這個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件最有效花費(fèi)最高效的方法。如果它需要你比風(fēng)險(xiǎn)本身的結(jié)果花費(fèi)更多成本,你可能要考慮一個(gè)不同的策略。 避免 你可能已經(jīng)猜到我的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范技術(shù)是關(guān)于怎樣避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。真的。它包括的不僅僅是那個(gè),然而，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避技術(shù)包括下列事項(xiàng): 避免隨之而來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的起因事件 改變項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃, 來從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件中保護(hù)目標(biāo) 讓我們來看一些各個(gè)技術(shù)的例子。完全避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意味著你知道結(jié)果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相對確實(shí)性,可以采取措施阻止風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的發(fā)生。假設(shè)奈德和球隊(duì)前往機(jī)場,搭乘航班去巴黎。為了保持奈德

45、自己平時(shí)的習(xí)慣,他已經(jīng)提出了每個(gè)人都提高到最后一秒。如果他們離開哪怕晚一點(diǎn)點(diǎn),他們就沒有時(shí)間來檢查內(nèi)德帶來的萬件行李,并且還要經(jīng)過安全檢查趕上那趟航班。雪莉是一個(gè)應(yīng)急項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理,決定在離開之前去做一個(gè)交通檢查。她登錄互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們正計(jì)劃去機(jī)場的那個(gè)高速公路上有重大的事故。為了避免延遲和避免錯(cuò)過這次航班,雪莉決定另選路線,避開這個(gè)事故從而避免了事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的消除是類似于這樣的一些技術(shù)性工作。雪莉知道，團(tuán)隊(duì)的行李看起來很像在機(jī)場運(yùn)輸帶上看到的某種行李。這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)會具有一些敏感的公司信息和幾件專業(yè)的設(shè)備。當(dāng)在飛機(jī)上的時(shí)候，雪莉能夠通過使用隨身攜帶的公司材料和特殊設(shè)備來消除這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生的原因。 這個(gè)照片的任務(wù)目的之一，就是拍攝巴黎人每天的所作所為，例如在公園散步、在；路邊的咖啡店吃東西、購物或者類似的其他戶外活動。當(dāng)暴風(fēng)雨突然來臨的時(shí)候，這樣的攝影就會被假定為會發(fā)生的。雪莉通過切換室內(nèi)外當(dāng)天拍攝的內(nèi)容，來改變項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃，從而在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件中保護(hù)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)。 當(dāng)你能夠規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，這是一個(gè)有效的辦法。麻煩的地方在于，它不是對每個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都適用，所以，讓我們來一些更多的技術(shù)方法。