《信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理》PPT課件

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1、1 HSBC 匯豐銀行 2 l Risk averse given Banks high gearing and thin marginl傾向低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，由于銀行高負(fù)債和低利息差l Proper goals and measures with controlsl適當(dāng)?shù)哪繕?biāo)和措施及控制l The Line takes primary (or joint) responsibility of the credit decisionsl 前線部門(mén)對(duì)貸款決定負(fù)主要（或共同）責(zé)任l Burden of proof on the Linel 證明應(yīng)貸款責(zé)任在于前線部門(mén) l Never feel embarra

2、ssed to ask “dumb” questionsl 不用擔(dān)心問(wèn)“愚笨”的問(wèn)題 3 Prerequisite:先決條件l Senior managements support (positive intervention?)l高層管理的支持（積極干預(yù)？）l People (technical capability, integrity and inter-personal skills)l人員（技術(shù)能力、人格和人際交往能力）l Organization and Systeml組織及系統(tǒng) Attribute:特征l Independent 獨(dú)立性l No bottom-line respo

3、nsibility 沒(méi)有盈利責(zé)任 l Professional 專(zhuān)業(yè)性l Firm and fair 堅(jiān)定和公正 4 Board of Directors董事會(huì)行政總裁（總部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政總裁（亞太區(qū)）AMHGM總經(jīng)理 （香港及中國(guó)大陸）Line前線部門(mén)信貸總經(jīng)理GM CreditCCO首席信貸官HD Credit 信貸部門(mén)主管Concurrence認(rèn)同Approval 審批Approval審批Approval審批Country Risk/Bank Risk國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Market Risk/Credit Risk市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Market Risk/Credit R

4、isk市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Credit信用 5 l Centralized vs Decentralized集權(quán)/分權(quán)l(xiāng) Individual vs Committee (composition and decision making process)個(gè)人/委員會(huì)（債務(wù)組成及決策過(guò)程） Factors to consider: 需要考慮的因素 l Individual / Collective Decision / Responsibilityl個(gè)人/集體決策/責(zé)任l Senior managements trust 高層管理的信任l Quality of staff (at centre an

5、d in the line) 員工的素質(zhì) （管理人員和一線職員）l Specialization of staff 員工專(zhuān)業(yè)化l Effectiveness of internal control system 內(nèi)部控制系統(tǒng)的功效 l Quality of service (e.g. turnaround time) 服務(wù)的質(zhì)量（例如：報(bào)廢項(xiàng)目時(shí)間）l Others (fraud prevention etc.) 其他（防范欺詐等） 6 Structure and Account Cycle結(jié)構(gòu)及客戶信貸周期Policy/政策Approval審批Risk Monitoring風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)督Recov

6、ery追償Head of CRM信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理部Loans貸款Unhealthy loans不良貸款Review回顧Review回顧 7 l Key business objectives 主要業(yè)務(wù)目標(biāo)l Structure and Responsibility 結(jié)構(gòu)及職責(zé)l Economic Outlook 經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期l Sectoral Analysis 行業(yè)分析l Business Strategy and Focus 業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略和重點(diǎn)l Risk Assessment and Credit Appetite 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和信貸偏好l Lending Guidelines 貸款指南l Credit

7、 Products, Procedures and Advice 信貸產(chǎn)品、程序和建議 8 l Market positioning and risk appetite 市場(chǎng)定位和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好 Return 回報(bào) Private Bank Commercial Bank Subprime Lender 私人銀行 商業(yè)銀行 次級(jí)貸款人 -Large corporate 大型企業(yè)-Middle market 中端市場(chǎng)-Small business 小型企業(yè)-Consumer 消費(fèi)者 Risk 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 9 l Corporate Banking - Large corporate - Judgementa

8、l (plus Rating, KMV, MRA) 公司金融-大型公司-主觀判斷（加評(píng)分，KMV, MRA) l Commercial Banking Medium sized corporate Judgemental 公司金融-中型企業(yè)-主觀判斷 l Business Banking Small business Scoring 商務(wù)理財(cái)-小型企業(yè)-評(píng)分 l Personal Financial Services Consumer Scoring 個(gè)人金融服務(wù)-消費(fèi)者-評(píng)分 10 Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA (USA)貸款不良率 美國(guó)所有銀行 0246

9、8101214 91Q1 91Q3 92Q1 92Q3 93Q1 93Q3 94Q1 94Q3 95Q1 95Q3 96Q1 96Q3 97Q1 97Q3 98Q1 98Q3 99Q1 99Q3 00Q1 00Q3 01Q1 01Q3Residential *住房貸款Commercial *商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款C&I Loans工商貸款Total Loans & Leases貸款和租賃總額 % 11 Charge-Off Rates, All Banks, SA (USA)沖銷(xiāo)率 所有銀行 美國(guó)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0 91Q1 91Q392Q192Q393Q193Q3 94Q19

10、4Q395Q195Q3 96Q196Q397Q197Q398Q1 98Q399Q199Q300Q1 00Q301Q101Q3Commercial *商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款C&I Loans工商貸款Total Loans & Leases貸款及租賃總額 % Residential *住房貸款 12 Loan Quality in HK香港地區(qū)貸款質(zhì)量 -10%-5%0%5%10%15% 20% NPL % 不良貸款比例Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised)年信用卡沖銷(xiāo)比例Mortgage Delinquency Rate住房貸款不良率Real GDP (yea

11、r on year % change)年實(shí)際GDP變化率 13 Corporate and Commercial Banking 公司金融 （大型和中型企業(yè)）l Operating Risks運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Borrower Grade 借款人評(píng)級(jí)l Financial Risks (including Projection) (PD) 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（包括財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)）（違約機(jī)率）l Account Conduct 來(lái)往狀況 l Security and Facility Structure抵押品、貸款結(jié)構(gòu)及評(píng)級(jí)Facility Grade 設(shè)施評(píng)級(jí)(Property + Marketable Securi

12、ties) （財(cái)產(chǎn)和可交易的證券） 14 l More vulnerable to economic downturn 易受經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的影響l Information problematic (low financial transparency and reliability) 信息問(wèn)題（財(cái)務(wù)信息透明度及可信度不高）l High operating risks (relatively weak in management skills) 高運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（較弱的管理能力）Characteristics of the Scorecard 記分卡的特征l Companys financials 公司財(cái)務(wù)

13、狀況l Companys credit history and behavior 公司信用歷史和表現(xiàn)l Companys attributes (age, sector, size etc) 公司性質(zhì)（成立時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短、所屬行業(yè)、規(guī)模等） l Owners scores 公司所有者的評(píng)分 15 英國(guó)小型公司主要業(yè)務(wù)的設(shè)立與終止 設(shè)立千/每季度終止 16 Criteria Based Lending 根據(jù)準(zhǔn)則所進(jìn)行的信貸l More commonly for secured products, e.g. mortgage, car loans, HP and loans secured by li

14、quid assets 多用于擔(dān)保產(chǎn)品，例如：住房貸款、汽車(chē)貸款、租賃及用流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保的貸款l Security coverage 抵押品/貸款 比例l Income coverage 收入/還款 比例 17 Mortgage Loan Quality (HK)香港地區(qū)住房貸款質(zhì)量 1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00% 8.00% Dec-98Feb-99Apr-99Jun-99Aug-99Oct-99Dec-99Feb-00Apr-00Jun-00Aug-00Oct-00Dec-00Feb-01Apr-01Jun-01Aug-01Oct-01Dec-01Fe

15、b-02 050100150200 250300 Mortgage Delinquency Rate住房貸款不良率Unemployment rate失業(yè)率Residential Price Index (1989=100) (RHS)住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù) （以1989年為100） 18 Credit Card Quality信用卡質(zhì)量 3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Dec-98Mar-99Jun-99Sep-99Dec-99Mar-00Jun-00Sep-00Dec-00Mar-01Jun-01Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02-1,0002,0003,000

16、4,0005,0006,0007,000 No. of Bankruptcy Petitions破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised)年信用卡沖銷(xiāo)率Unemployment rate 失業(yè)率Bankruptcy Petitions (RHS) 破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng) （RHS) 19 l Rank ordering 分級(jí)l Application and Behavioral Scoresl申請(qǐng)信貸和行為評(píng)分l Generic and Customized Scoresl通用評(píng)分和專(zhuān)用評(píng)分l Credit card, personal loans, etc

17、 信用卡，個(gè)人貸款等 20 l Management Information 管理信息(CPAN, IBIS, REMIND, SCOPE, etc)l Grade classification / migrationl評(píng)級(jí)分類(lèi)/變動(dòng)情況l Score distribution / flow ratel分值分布/流動(dòng)率 21 1. Interest margin: hurdle rates, e.g. bonds. 利率邊際：障礙率，例如：債券2. RORA: return on the overall relationship 總體關(guān)系的回報(bào)3. EP: cost of capital 經(jīng)濟(jì)

18、利潤(rùn)：資本成本 Factors to consider: 考慮因素l PD (Borrowers grade) 違約機(jī)率l LGD 損失比率l Term 年期l Cost of capital 資本成本 l Competition 競(jìng)爭(zhēng)l Business potential 發(fā)展?jié)摿?22 Objective 目標(biāo)Risk vs Relationship 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 或 關(guān)系Strategy 戰(zhàn)略Rehabilitation OR Exit 貸款康復(fù)或退出 23 Workout - Factors for success 債務(wù)重組 - 成功的因素- legal system (Scheme of

19、Arrangement, Individual Voluntary Arrangement, Bankruptcy Law)- 法律體系 (債務(wù)安排計(jì)劃、個(gè)人自愿安排、破產(chǎn)法）- professional support (lawyer, accountant, financial advisor, asset search agent, debt collector)- 專(zhuān)業(yè)支持 （律師、會(huì)計(jì)師、財(cái)務(wù)顧問(wèn)、資產(chǎn)搜尋代理、債務(wù)追償人）- customer self-rescue (transparency, commitment and cooperation)- 客戶 - 自救措施 （透明、

20、承擔(dān)與合作） - multi-bank - supportive, expeditious and equitable the Hong Kong Approach- 多頭銀行 -支持態(tài)度、迅速及公平 （香港原則） 24 Feedback 回饋 - lessons learnt - Credit Alert (early warning signs), training course- 吸取教訓(xùn) 每月簡(jiǎn)訊（預(yù)警信號(hào)）、培訓(xùn)課程- loophole - change in credit policy or procedures, management information- 漏洞 - 信用政策

21、或程序的改變，管理信息 - cross-stream application and experience sharing PFS & CIB e.g. concept of restructuring, receivership- 跨部門(mén)應(yīng)用及經(jīng)驗(yàn)分享 個(gè)人信貸和商業(yè)信貸 - 例如：債務(wù)重組和資產(chǎn)接管的概念 25 Human Resources人力資源- specialized skills understanding of legal system, able to face and handle confrontation, negotiation, leadership, decision-making- 專(zhuān)業(yè)技能 - 了解法律體系，能夠應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)及對(duì)立局面，具備談判技巧、領(lǐng)導(dǎo)才能和決策的能力- built on solid credit background- 具備良好的授信/信貸知識(shí)及經(jīng)驗(yàn)- flat reporting structure- 扁平的組織架構(gòu)- support from senior management- 高層管理的支持